Ever since the horror of the Srebrenica genocide in July 1995, the United States has had a hand in every major breakthrough in peace processes in the Balkans, spending vast resources on peacekeeping efforts in the region.
Europe too has been an essential presence, making sure brokered agreements were sustainable, taking over peacekeeping missions and, most importantly, using the promise of prospective membership in the European Union to promote democracy and economic prosperity in the region.
During the last 15 years, as Balkan states reformed, their mutual hostilities quieted down. The shared goal of joining the EU encouraged them to develop more democratic institutions and work toward a borderless future. Croatia was granted membership in 2013, giving hope to others in its neighborhood.
But now, a strange thing has happened. EU countries have become resistant to welcoming new members into the club: the accessions of Romania and Bulgaria were arguably rushed, and the Union has been distracted by a series of crises since 2008 — the financial crisis, the euro crisis, the migration crisis and, most recently, the Brexit crisis.
[dt_quote type="blockquote" font_size="big" animation="none" background="plain"]Political elites across the Balkans show little interest in adhering to Europe’s bedrock democratic values.[/dt_quote]Unresolved bilateral disputes, such as the diplomatic stand-off over the naming issue betweenMacedonia and Greece, have blocked progressand further undermined the credibility of theenlargement process. And the resulting lack ofpolitical appetite for Europe’s enlargement threatens to send the wrong message to a region where peace remainsfragile.
Today, political elites across the Balkans showlittle interest in adhering to Europe’s bedrock democratic values. Instead,authoritarianism and clientelism are on the rise. Citizens in the region faceincreasing hopelessness in the face of rampant unemployment as their countries continue tostruggle to return tothe levels of GDP they had as part ofYugoslavia.
Brexit may be the last nail in the region’s coffin. Not only has the U.K. been animportant advocate for enlargement, its departurewill keep the rest of the EUfar too busyto pay much attention to the Balkans. The situationhas handed a powerful argument to a Balkan ruling classhappy with the status quo: Why bother joining a union that is falling apart, and that doesn’t want us?
[dt_quote type="blockquote" font_size="big" animation="none" background="plain"]The situation has handed a powerful argument to a Balkan ruling class happy with the status quo: Why bother joining a union that is falling apart, and that doesn’t want us?[/dt_quote]Balkan strongmen may still talk thepro-EU talk, but they walk likeRussians or Turkishauthoritarians. Theyoffer short-term stability, but they have no respect for democratic institutions and strike populist tonesthat could undermine peace in the region. As the attempted coup and subsequent crackdown in Turkey has demonstrated, this is a dangerous model for the Balkans.
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The most striking backsliding has taken place in Macedonia, a front-runner in the accession process only 10 years ago and one of the region’s few success stories in conflict prevention. Wiretapped conversations, leaked last year by the Macedonian opposition, exposed the abuses of former prime ministerNikola Gruevski’s regime, and provided evidence of alleged corruption, governmental pressure on the judiciary and media, electoral fraud and the massive abuse of state institutions.
Gruevski and his entouragehave fought attemptsto instate checks and balances, as well asmeasures that would help guaranteecredible elections, despite considerable EU efforts to resolve the crisis.President Gjorge Ivanov, one ofGruevski’s allies, attemptedto resolve the standoff witha blanket pardon — a move that was met with months of daily protests until he retracted his offer of amnesty.
[dt_quote type="blockquote" font_size="big" animation="none" background="plain"]Resolving Macedonia’s crisis would be a game changer for the whole region.[/dt_quote]What happens next in Macedonia,where the abuse of power has been so well documented, will have momentous implications forthe entireregion. If authorities areheld accountable, other leaders in the Balkansmay be convinced they should show restraint. If not, the message will be clear: transgressions will be left unpunished.
As long as Europe remains reluctant to admit new members, theU.S. will have to step up its involvement and help keep the region on track. Fortunately, this effort no longer requiresthe use of American military might. U.S. diplomacy has been effective when closely coordinated with EU efforts at maintaining stability and ensuring accountability.
ResolvingMacedonia’s crisis wouldbe a game changer for the whole region. Done right, it will send aclear message to burgeoning wannabePutins in the Balkans: Yourstrategy leads to a dead end.
Nikola Dimitrov is a former ambassador of Macedonia to the United States, distinguished fellow at the Hague Institute for Global Justice and member of the Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group (BiEPAG).
Florian Bieber is professor of southeast European history and politics at the University of Graz, Austria, and BiEPAG’s coordinator.