A new BiEPAG policy paper by Florian Bieber, Claudia Laštro, and Enej Lovrečič examines why democratic breakthroughs in the Western Balkans and other competitive authoritarian regimes so often fail to produce lasting democratic change. Drawing on experiences from Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Georgia, Armenia, and beyond, the authors argue that the period immediately following an electoral defeat of an authoritarian government represents a narrow window in which reforms must be both swift and carefully designed to prevent authoritarian backsliding.

The paper identifies the principal obstacles to successful re-democratization, including fragmented governing coalitions, captured institutions, entrenched informal networks, and the reconcentration of power. It concludes with recommendations for both domestic democratic actors and the European Union, calling for early, structured reforms, sustained support for independent civil society, and stronger EU engagement before and after democratic transitions to help secure lasting democratic consolidation.